A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
